Weekly opinion notes for investors. Not investment advice.

Which quantum computing companies are actually real

An ex-IonQ, ex-IBM Quantum theoretical quantum computer scientist separates billion-dollar breakthroughs from billion-dollar buzzwords. For investors who need to know the difference.

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Why this exists

Most quantum analysis is marketing.
This isn't.

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Physics First

Every claim evaluated against actual quantum mechanics. Not press releases. Not earnings calls. The physics.

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Signal vs. Noise

Technical insights on every major public quantum company — what's real progress and what's noise. Updated weekly.

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Timeline Reality

Honest assessment of when (or if) quantum advantage arrives for each company's approach. No hype. No hopium.

About the analyst

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Omar Shehab

Founder & Chief Scientist, Quantum Signals. Ex-IonQ. Ex-IBM Quantum

Most quantum market commentary is written by people who've read the papers. I've built the algorithms — for IonQ's trapped-ion processors and IBM's superconducting systems. I've been inside both machines. That's a perspective Wall Street analysts don't have.

At IonQ I worked on quantum algorithms for real hardware. At IBM, I've led taskforces on AI for Quantum Sciences and Quantum for Healthcare & Life Sciences, and I advise IBM Quantum's business development on national security programs. I'm PI or co-PI on DARPA, NASA, and Wellcome Leap programs, with research partnerships including Amgen, E.On, and Cleveland Clinic. When I say a company's hardware claim is physics — or marketing — I've done the math.

PhD CS · UMBC Ex-IBM Quantum Former IonQ DARPA · NASA · Wellcome Leap PI 10+ Patents 20+ Papers
LinkedIn Google Scholar

Sample Issue

What subscribers receive weekly

Quantum Signals · Vol. 1, Issue 2 April 2026
Sample

The Logical Qubit Milestone Nobody's Talking About

Last week's announcement buried a critical detail: the error rate on their logical qubits hit 10⁻⁶ — three orders of magnitude below the threshold needed for useful computation. This isn't incremental. This is the first credible evidence that one company's approach to error correction might actually work at scale.

Meanwhile, another major player quietly retracted their "quantum advantage" claim from Q4 after independent researchers couldn't replicate it. The stock hasn't moved yet. It will.

Company A
Superconducting / Error Correction
▲ Real Progress
Company B
Trapped Ion / Full-Stack
◆ Developing
Company C
Photonic / Networking
— Steady
Company D
Quantum-Inspired / Software
▼ Overstated

The deeper analysis reveals why Company A's approach to surface codes gives them a structural advantage that competitors can't replicate without fundamental architecture changes. Their latest patent filing shows a novel decoder design that reduces overhead by 40%, which means their roadmap to 1000 logical qubits is now 2-3 years ahead of the published timeline. For investors, the implications are significant — the current valuation assumes quantum utility arrival in 2030, but internal benchmarks suggest 2028 is now realistic. Company D's "quantum-inspired" positioning becomes even harder to justify at their current multiple when real quantum computation arrives early.

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